The North American automotive sales market in 2024 is characterized by a mix of slow growth, the increasing popularity of electric vehicles (EVs), and a shift in market dynamics post-COVID-19 pandemic.
- Market Growth: The overall growth in the North American automotive sales market is expected to be slow in 2024. Automakers are anticipated to face challenges in moving vehicles despite relatively normal conditions since the pandemic. This slow growth trend aligns with the broader U.S. economic outlook, which predicts slow but constrained growth without a recession. S&P Global Mobility forecasts that U.S. sales volumes will reach 15.9 million units in 2024, marking an estimated increase of 2.0% from the projected 2023 level of 15.5 million units.
- Electric Vehicles (EVs): A significant trend in the automotive industry is the rising popularity of EVs. In 2023, EV sales saw a strong first half, increasing by 55% compared to the same period in the previous year. This momentum is expected to continue, with four out of ten Americans seriously considering an EV for their next vehicle purchase. The penetration of EVs in the U.S. is expected to increase significantly, reaching 30% by 2030. By 2029, auto Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) globally are forecasted to launch over 1,000 Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) nameplates, nearly doubling the number from 2022, with North America accounting for about 170 of these.
- Market Size and Future Outlook: The North American Automotive Market size is projected to grow from USD 0.94 trillion in 2023 to USD 1.22 trillion by 2028, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.43% during the forecast period (2023-2028). This growth comes after a period of significant impact due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which disrupted the market in the first half of 2020. Additionally, Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) engine programs are expected to decline by 12% in North America from 2024 to 2028, indicating a shift towards more environmentally friendly vehicle options.
- Impact on Consumers: The market conditions in 2024 are expected to be favorable for car buyers. Cox Automotive anticipates this year to be the best for car buyers since the pandemic, considering factors like weak economic growth, higher new-vehicle inventories, and the end of the seller’s market.
In conclusion, the North American automotive sales market in 2024 appears to be heading towards modest growth with a significant push towards EV adoption, influenced by changing consumer preferences and broader economic trends. This presents both challenges and opportunities for automakers and consumers alike.